AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD 14 - 17 graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  Home Loans: Monday, 00:30. Home Loans provides a snap...

AUD/USD 14 - 17 graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  AUD USD Outlook Oct. 14-18th
  1. Home Loans: Monday, 00:30. Home Loans provides a snapshot of the health of the housing industry as well as that of consumer spending. The indicator has posted gains above 2% in the past two releases, but the markets are expecting a sharp decline of -2.1% in September.
  2. Chinese CPI: Monday, 1:30. This key indicator has been fairly steady, and last month’s reading came in at 2.6%. The markets are expecting an increase, with an estimate of 2.8%.
  3. RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 00:30. Analysts will be carefully combing through the minutes of the RBA’s most recent policy meeting. The RBA has hinted that it will not be reducing rates before next year, and the minutes could help shed light on the RBA’s take on the health of the Australian economy and its views on the level of the Australian dollar.
  4. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Tuesday, 00:30. This important consumer spending indicator tends to fluctuate. After a sharp drop in August, the indicator posted a modest gain on 0.8%. Will we see another gain this month?
  5. MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30. The index is based on 9 economic indicators, but is considered a minor release since most of the data has already been released.
  6. NAB Quarterly Business Confidence: Thursday, 00:30. This indicator is released each quarter, magnifying its impact. The indicator has looked sluggish, as six of the past seven quarters have been below the zero level, indicating pessimism. The markets will be hoping that the upcoming release will be in positive territory.
  7. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks: Friday, 1:00. Stevens will deliver remarks at the Australian British Chamber of Commerce Business Lunch in Sydney. The governor has made remarks in the past which have moved the markets, and analysts will be looking for any clues as to the RBA’s plans regarding interest rates.
  8. Chinese GDP: Friday, 2:00. Chinese key releases should be treated as market-movers, since China is Australia’s number one trading partner. Chinese GDP has been dropping in recent releases, and hit 7.5% in August, missing the estimate of 7.7%. The markets are expecting GDP to jump to 7.8% in the September release.
  9. Chinese Industrial Production: Friday, 2:00. Industrial Production has been improving and hit 10.4% in August, a sixteen-month high. The estimate for the upcoming reading is lower, at 10.1%.
* All times are GMT

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